COVID-19 in-depth analysis: Calculating the odds of a healthy person dying from the coronavirus.

Headline news of COVID-19 infections and related deaths are getting very tiresome for many people.

We hear and see it everywhere on the Internet, radio, and television. Corporate media outlets have been force-feeding us their over-simplified statistics every single day, usually in the form of:  X amount of new cases plus X amount of deaths recorded.

Almost none of the media provide any actual context. And why should they? They have political biases and are in the business of making money through ratings. They are not there to educate us.

Plus, fearmongering through disinformation has been a very effective tool for them. It may be an odd strategy to win people’s trust, but it seems to work.

So let’s pull out our calculators and crunch some COVID-19 numbers, so we can figure this out on our own.

Let’s find out just how deadly the coronavirus is to the general public, and more specifically, to healthy people. 

To do so, we need a good source of data to examine. Since the State of New York has the highest number of cases in America, we’ll use the information provided by the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) website as a benchmark (screenshot below).

As of June 06, 2020, the state of New York has reported 376,208 COVID-19 cases, according to Google’s tracker (screenshot below).

And based on the information published by the NYSDOH, New York has recorded 24,212 COVID-19 related fatalities.

This translates to a fatality rate of about 6.43%.

Age group Number of COVID-19 fatalities Percentage
of fatalities
0-9 4 0%
10-19 10 0%
20-29 89 0.40%
30-39 323 1.30%
40-49 841 3.50%
50-59 2,324 9.60%
60-69 4,720 19.60%
70-79 6,300 26%
80-89 6,227 25.70%
90 and over 3,365 13.90%
Unknown 9 0%
Totals 24,212 100%

However, this 6.43% figure is highly misleading because it includes people who were already in very poor health prior to contracting the virus.

In fact, of the 24,212 people whose deaths were recorded as COVID-19, 21,755 (89.9%) of patients had comorbidity.

Comorbidity is defined as “more than one disease or condition is present in the same person at the same time.”

This includes things like cancer, diabetes, heart disease, etc.

So, if we excluded the 89.9% who were unhealthy, that would leave us with roughly 10.1% who were healthy.

In that case, the COVID-19 figures for healthy people would look like this:

Age group

 

COVID-19 fatalities

 

Percentage of
healthy patients

 

Number of fatalities
(rounded up)

 

Percentage
of fatalities

 

         
0-9 4 10.1% 0 0.001%
         
10-19 10 10.1% 1 0.0020%
         
20-29 89 10.1% 9 0.0023%
         
30-39 323 10.1% 33 0.0087%
         
40-49 841 10.1% 85 0.0226%
         
50-59 2,324 10.1% 235 0.0625%
         
60-69 4,720 10.1% 477 0.1268%
         
70-79 6,300 10.1% 636 0.1691%
         
80-89 6,227 10.1% 629 0.1673%
         
90 and over 3,365 10.1% 340 0.0904%
         
TOTALS     2,445 0.6527%

PS. Calculations are based on the total number of reported COVID-19 cases in the State of New York as of the time of this writing (376,208). The figures above are not 100 percent accurate because the actual percentage of healthy people ranges between different age groups. Since we do not have the exact data of non-comorbid patients per age groups, we are applying the 89.9% overall fatality rate that NYSDOH provided for all age groups to calculate our estimates.

So to answer our question, the odds for a healthy person to die from the coronavirus are as follows:

Ages 0 to 9:
Less than one healthy person out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.001%)

Ages 10 to 19:                 
2 healthy people out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.002%)

Ages 20 to 29:                 
2 healthy people out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.0023%)

Ages 30 to 39:
8 healthy people out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.0087%)

Ages 40 to 49:
22 healthy people out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.0226%)

Ages 50 to 59:
62 healthy people out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.0625%)

Ages 60 to 69:
126 healthy people out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.1268%)

Ages 70 to 79:
169 healthy people out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.1691%)

Ages 80 to 89:
167 healthy people out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.1673%)

Ages 90 and up:
90 healthy people out of 100,000 may die from the coronavirus (0.0904%)                                       

Even still, these estimates might actually be too high.

Again, the figures above are based on “reported” cases of COVID-19.

Nobody really knows how many people have not reported their cases, or were simply unaware they even carried the virus because they are asymptomatic. 

So the actual odds for a healthy person to die from COVID-19 could actually be a lot smaller than what we have calculated.

The only way those rates could get higher, is if the coronavirus mutated itself into a more lethal strain. But if that happens, scientists would have to rename it to something different.